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Roy Moore’s Senate race is almost impossible to poll accurately

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ALABAMA has seldom been of much interest to pollsters. No Democrat has held statewide office since 2010, or been elected to the Senate since 1990. Expecting another snoozer, pollsters largely ignored the special election to replace Jeff Sessions, now the attorney-general, to be held on December 12th. That changed after the Republican nominee, Roy Moore, a Bible-thumping former judge, was accused of offences ranging from sexual harassment to assault decades ago by eight women (many of whom were teenagers at the time). Mr Moore, who has strenuously denied the allegations, saw his polls plummet as prominent Republicans withdrew their endorsements and optimistic Democrats sent a flood of money to his opponent. Since then Mr Moore’s numbers have stabilised. Nearly 90% of Republicans in the state approve of the president, and support for Mr Moore in the primaries in Alabama’s 67 counties was strongly correlated with the Trump vote in 2016.

Still, Doug Jones, the Democratic…Continue reading

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